How can Saudi Arabia [‘SA’] become a full member of BRICS because it’s wagon is firmly hitched to the US?
SA holds $140 Billion in US Treasury Bonds.
SA’s Royal Family & political elite have also heavily invested in US & western assets.
These assets can be expropriated, frozen and confiscated at the flick of a pen.
In other words, SA & its rulers are conflicted.
So, if SA grants Israel permission to use its airspace to attack Iran what will Iran (with the blessing of Russia & China) do?
Against what targets and where will Iran retaliate in order to re-establish escalatory dominance and deter a future attack by Israel?
If the Straits of Hormuz become unnavigable because of war the risk is that the world economy as we know it will crash.
So, will the US at SA’s bidding prevent Israel from using SA airspace to attack Iran?
If not – what is the future of the Kingdom in MENA?
If SA becomes geopolitically unstable – what is the future of the US in MENA?
If as reported, prior to the BRICS conference this week, SA made a diplomatic promise to Iran that it would not become involved, i.e. allow its territory to be used by Israel/US to attack Iran & to refuel Israeli long range aircraft returning from an attack on Iran, then surely the regime in SA will diplomatically have burnt its bridges with BRICS if the promise is not honoured?
How could any diplomat, or for that matter any arab on the street, trust the word of a Saudi Prince or monarch ever again, if SA does allow Israel/US to use its territory & airspace in breach of such an undertaking?
In any event Iran which became a full member of BRICS earlier this week, could block Saudi membership, leaving SA diplomatically isolated in MENA.
So, in choosing a side, will Saudi Arabia look to its past or to its future?
The problem for SA is that it does not know whether the US can and actually will prevent an attack by Israel on Iran.
If Israel does use SA territory/airspace to attack Iran, there will be no going back, because Israel will have sealed the fate of: (i) the Kingdom; and (ii) of the US, in the region. So SA must pin its colours to one mast or the other before an attack is launched.
Now, if I can join up these elementary dots, then you would expect that senior members of the Biden administration have also arrived at the same conclusion?
All it takes to stop a regional war in MENA is one phone call from Biden to Netanyahu.
So, if Israel launches a first wave of attacks against e.g. Iranian radar installations, before 5 November, then we will know that either: (i) Biden did not make the call; or (ii) if he did, that the US has no leverage/control over Israel.
If that happens, what signal will this send to China who have a strategic interest in keeping maritime traffic flowing through the Straits of Hormuz?
So, let’s see what happens – hopefully nothing.
Notes added since:
At 22:52 BST Middle East Eye in Washington reported – ‘Israel’s war planning is now factoring in its jet fighters taking a circuitous route around the Arabian Gulf to attack Iran, an operation that would require extensive mid-air refuelling, one current and two former senior US officials told MEE on the condition of anonymity.
Iran has been vocal about what they say is Gulf states’ reluctance to aid Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday said Tehran has secured a pledge from neighbouring countries not to allow their “soil or airspace” to be used in any attack, as it girds for Israel’s retaliation to its missile attack.
“All our neighbours have assured us that they won’t allow their soil or airspace to be used against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Araghchi said on Tuesday.” LikeReply
According to India Today:
‘100 fighter jets carried out the attacks in 3 waves on 20 missile and drone facilities of Iran. The 1st wave of attacks was on Iran’s radar and air defence facilities, clearing the path for following strikes on military bases. Iran’s missile and drone facilities were targeted in the 2nd and 3rd wave.’
So, whose airspace was used to launch 180 missiles from fixed-wing aircraft & refuel 100 Israeli jets returning over that airspace in 3 consecutive waves?
Tehran was a target.
It appears that Iran’s air-defences intercepted nearly all of the incoming missiles.
The number of declared fatalties is two Iranian Air Force Officers.
It appears that SA airspace and territory was NOT used in the attack.
Across MENA – Yemen, Oman, SA, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan & Iraq have all condemned Israel.
So, diplomatically there is a united front in MENA which recognises that Israel attacked the sovereign state of Iran in breach of International Law.
This diplomatic grouping includes 2 BRICS members: UAE & Egypt.
Syria & Turkey have applied to join.
Bahrain & Tunisia have also expressed an interest in becoming a member.
SA membership has not yet been approved.LikeReply
Al Jazeera reported 17 hours ago (i.e. before Israel attacked Iran) that:
‘At least 600 patients along with their companions, and staff members, are trapped at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya as the Israeli military besieges the medical facility.
Israeli forces raided the hospital in northern Gaza on Friday and ordered patients to move down to the main courtyard as they conducted mass arrests.
At least two children have died in the intensive care unit after the hospital’s generators stopped and the oxygen station was targeted, the health ministry said in a statement.
Among those inside are 195 patients, and 70 medical staff members.
The raid came a day after Israeli tanks shelled the compound of the hospital, one of the few remaining functioning medical facilities in the north of the enclave.
He warned that the hospital could become a mass grave as one patient was dying every hour as a result of the Israeli military assault.
Israeli forces “stormed” the hospital, “detaining hundreds of patients, medical staff and some displaced individuals from neighbouring areas who sought refuge”. Fires had broken out, making it difficult for people to evacuate the building and for ambulances to operate.’LikeReply
Film shows Israeli soldiers threw mattresses & medical supplies onto the floor & smashed ceilings. Medical staff are reported to have either been taken away for interrogation or are missing. What the IDF did is a war crime. Keir Starmer has not commented upon/condemned the IDF assault on civilians (including children – now dead as a result) inside the hospital. Earlier today he said: ‘I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression.’ Since, Israel attacked the sovereign state of Iran in breach of International Law, his statement is legally non-sensical. Israel are on trial at the ICJ for genocide. Starmer, who is a human rights lawyer, does not appear to know/understand that: (i) the absolute prohibition against Genocide is a ‘jus cogens’ norm of International Law, i.e. that there is no defence to genocide – whatsoever; and (ii) even if there were, that because Israel is an occupier in Gaza, ‘self-defence’ is not available as a defence to Israel under International Law. So, what Starmer has said over the last 12 months about Israel acting in ‘self-defence’ v. the civilian population in Gaza, is not only legally incorrect, it is complete nonsense. Likewise, David Lammy.