In the 1990’s I worked in-house for 2 multi-national engineering giants who were leaders in the field of power-projects. In those days the idea of privately-financed projects worth millions (the last one I was involved in was over £800 million) was emerging. Today these projects involve many multiples of that. One of the key risks analysed by merchant banks and other investors was/is ‘political risk.’

Hold that thought for a moment!

Google – ‘Judge Napolitano + Larry Johnson : Israel and Ukraine Covering Up Failures.’ In this programme it was reported that:

(i) Israel’s attack on Friday was planned to consist of 3 waves. The 1st was to suppress Iranian air defences so that bombers could then enter Iranian airspace to fire precision guided missiles at their targets within range.

(ii) Israel was unable to suppress Iran’s air defence systems (‘ADS’) & no aircraft entered Iranian airspace.

(iiI) The 2nd & 3rd waves were called-off.

If correct, then what happened, i.e. why did Israel call off the 2nd & 3rd waves?

Google – ‘Judge Napolitano + Alastair Crooke : Israel’s Preference For Self-Destruction.’

According to Alastair Crooke’s sources during the 1st wave Israel encountered an unknown ADS which was capable of shooting down stealth aircraft.

If correct, then apparently this will have been the first time that such a system has been tested in combat as hitherto, it was not known to exist.

If Iran has demonstrated that its has an ADS which can lock on to and destroy approaching stealth aircraft, then Israel:

(i) cannot intercept incoming hypersonic missiles; &

(ii) cannot launch an attack on Iran using stealth aircraft without risking their aircraft from being shot down,

i.e. Israel cannot deter a future attack by threatening an effective counter-strike.

Therefore, by attacking Iran, it appears that Netanyahu has demonstrated that Israel has lost escalatory dominance to Iran.

So, placing myself in the shoes of an investor, what I am wondering in the context of evaluating ‘political risk’, is how any consortium of construction & infrastructure companies can manage the political risk of what they are building being destroyed before they have completed the project & been paid in full?

If they cannot manage that risk, then how can western construction & infrastructure companies undertake projects inside Israel?

Therefore, if e.g. the Houthis/Hezbollah attack Israeli infrastructure, then who is going to rebuild it?

Netanyahu and his government appear to have caused more self-inflicted harm to the economic security and viability of Israel as a functioning state than they foresaw & realised when they attacked Iran.

That is because they appear to have revealed to the world that the ‘Emperor has no clothes!’