If Russia did that, then a nuclear attack, i.e. by Israel on Iran, would be treated as being a nuclear attack on Russia.
Consequently, Israel will have started a nuclear war between the US, Europe and Russia, which China, North Korea and Pakistan may join, i.e. a global thermonuclear conflict.
Since the fall-out of a nuclear attack by Israel on Iran is likely to contaminate the entire Gulf Region, then will the Gulf States support such a declaration by Russia, i.e. in order to survive?
It appears that UK Think Tanks like Chatham House, have concluded that there is almost a zero chance of Russia doing this.
That is not how I am reading the situation.
What if they are wrong?
This would be an existential mistake.
In other words, this is a possibility that no rational political actor can take a ‘gamble’ on.
See:
Meanwhile, it appears from press reports that Trump is preparing to send in ground troops.
If Israel in a moment of desperation launches a nuclear weapon, how can US ground troops in Iran, avoid becoming casualties of Israeli nuclear aggression.
So, is Israel willing to sacrifice the lives of thousands of US ground troops in a final attmept to establish escalatory dominance?
Logically, a subsidiary question is whether Trump is ready to sacrifice thousands of American lives for Israel?
What do you think?
Caveat – This post is written in my capacity as graduate of one of the UK’s top schools of Political Science, and not in any professional capacity whatsoever.