As I warned on Tuesday, as a result of this illegal war, a ‘Humanitarian Crisis’, which could become a ‘Humanitarian Catastrophe’, is now unfolding in the Gulf States, where millions of foreign nationals (including expatriates), and migrant workers from all around the world, are trapped.
See – https://lnkd.in/e8x3sVzR
While as far as I am aware, Iran has not attacked any de-salination plants in the Gulf States, this commentator predicts that Israel will launch ‘false flag’ operations to destroy de-salination plants in these states, in order to rally other states, who e.g. are NATO members, to enter the war on their side.
See also my blog – ‘Can Humanitarian Mediation provide a Diplomatic Offramp?’ on the ‘Cultural Heritage & Genocide’ page at www.carlislam.co.uk.
Tragically, Starmer and most UK parliamentarians appear to be taking the UK in the wrong direction.
Instead of:
(i) staying out of this widening and potentially global conflict;
(ii) proposing Humanitarian Mediation; and
(iii) offering to act as a ‘Humanitarian’ Mediator,
the UK Government appears militarily to have decided to plunge the UK into an illegal war of choice.
In other words Starmer, with what appeared vocally at PMQ’s on Wednesday, to be the almost universal support of members of the House of Commons of all parties, appears to have decided to escalate the war.
I am trying to understand why rational, intelligent, and well informed political actors, would in effect decide to ‘pour petrol on the fire’ of an illegal war, that is likely to result in a Humanitarian Catastrophe in the states of the UK’s allies – i.e. the Gulf States.
What these politicians do not appear to have grasped is that such a crisis may end in:
(i) civil unrest;
(ii) a break down in law and order;
(iii) civil insurrection; and
(iv) the overthrow of the Gulf Monarchies, by their own people/militaries.
So, I am wondering how educated Starmer, his ministers, and parliamentarians are, about the ‘demographic make-up’ of the Gulf States; and the risk of ‘political instability’ resulting from a ‘Humanitarian Crisis’ becoming a ‘Humanitarian Catastrophe’, as an inadvertent consequence of escalation.
Can someone please explain, since logically the price in deaths throughout the Gulf States, as a result of food and medical supplies not getting in, and of lack of clean water, is likely to be high if this turns out to be a protracted war.
That is because nothing can get in at scale by either sea or air, and in effect, the only way out for most civilians trapped in the Gulf, is south through Oman.
Oman may not allow refugees fleeing in their thousands from the Gulf States, to enter their country.
The route may also close if Yemen joins the war.
I hope that I am wrong!
Let’s see what happens.
Caveat – This post is written in my capacity as a graduate of one of the UK’s top schools of Political Science, and not in any professional capacity.
Comments added:
AI (05.03.2026) – ‘As of March 2026, a rapidly worsening humanitarian crisis is unfolding across several Gulf states following an escalation of regional violence involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. While the Gulf has historically been a hub for stability, recent retaliatory strikes have brought direct conflict to its territory, leading to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in countries including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
The Guardian +3Current Humanitarian ImpactInternational relief agencies, including UNOCHA and the British Red Cross, have raised alarms regarding the following developments:
- Civilian Casualties & Displacement: Strikes have hit residential areas, schools, and hospitals across the region. In some areas, residents have been forced to flee or are sheltering in place due to ongoing drone and missile attacks.
- Targeting of Infrastructure: Energy facilities, ports, and airports in Oman, Kuwait, and the UAE have been targeted, disrupting essential services and the movement of goods.
- Vulnerability of Migrant Workers: Millions of expatriate workers from South and Southeast Asia (including India, the Philippines, and Pakistan) are at severe risk. Several governments have initiated massive evacuation and repatriation plans for their citizens trapped in affected zones.
- Operational Constraints: Airspace closures and insecurity have severely restricted the movement of humanitarian personnel and the delivery of life-saving supplies across the region. unocha +5
Regional Context
- Conflict Escalation: The crisis intensified following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, which prompted widespread retaliatory attacks by Iran and its allies against US-allied Gulf states.
- Economic Disruption: The targeting of the Gulf’s trade and energy sectors threatens its status as a global hub for finance and tourism, further compounding the regional instability.
- Resource Strain: The UN Relief Chief has warned that the “daunting” humanitarian fallout is draining the resources and political will needed to save lives in a region already home to millions of displaced people.’
UN relief chief warns of ‘daunting’ humanitarian fallout amid escalating violence in Middle East
Ai (05.03.2026) – ‘President Emmanuel Macron ordered the deployment of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean and Middle East on 3 March 2026, to protect French allies and secure critical maritime trade routes during the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
Key reasons for the deployment include:
- Protecting Regional Allies: France is fulfilling defense agreements with
, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
- French forces have already intercepted Iranian drones targeting these allies.
- A French military base in the UAE was recently hit by a drone, causing material damage.
- Securing Global Energy & Trade: Macron emphasized the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently effectively closed.
- The route handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
- France is leading a coalition to secure the Suez Canal and Red Sea.
- Deterrence and Defense: The carrier provides expanded radar and air defense coverage for French and EU assets.
- It also serves as preparation for possible evacuation operations of French and EU citizens in Lebanon and the UAE.
- Defending Cyprus: France is sending additional assets, including the frigate Languedoc, to protect Cyprus after attacks on British military bases on the island.’
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