Today Trump is ahead in Arizona by +1.80, i.e. he is forecast to win 48.7% of the vote v. Harris on 46.9. So, if he wins that state on Tuesday, then on the election math, Harris must win Michigan.
No Democrat has ever won the Presidency without winning this state.
Today she is forecast to win 47.8% (i.e. she is ahead of Trump by 0.80.
However, 5.4% are undecided + there is a margin of error.
Some voter are undecided.
Some may not have openly come out if favour of Trump in Michigan but will in fact end up voting for him.
In March I wrote a blog on the ‘Conflict & Dynamics’ page at
www.diplomaticlawguide.com – ‘Has Trump already won the Presidential election?’
I argued that on the election maths, Biden (i.e. now Harris) can only win if he [i.e. she] takes Michigan.
I added a note at 12.21, 01.03.2024:
‘Biden has picked his side – ‘The US, on 29 February, vetoed a UN Security Council (UNSC) statement that would have condemned Israel for the mass murder of over 100 Palestinian civilians who were awaiting the delivery of humanitarian aid in Gaza City. … Thursday’s veto is the fifth time Washington has blocked a UNSC statement or ceasefire resolution that would hold Israel accountable for the atrocities it has committed in Gaza. According to Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian UN ambassador, 14 of the 15 council members supported the statement advanced by Algeria. At least 112 Palestinians were killed and more than 750 wounded after Israeli troops opened heavy machine gun and artillery fire on thousands waiting for food … in what marked the first delivery of food to northern Gaza in several weeks. “After opening fire, Israeli tanks advanced and ran over many of the dead and injured bodies,” Al Jazeera’s Ismail al-Ghoul reported from the scene. “At about 4:30 in the early morning, trucks started to trickle in. The Israelis just opened random fire on us as if it was a trap. Once we approached the aid trucks, the Israeli tanks and warplanes started firing on us,” a witness at the scene told Al Jazeera.” (thecradle.co).’
If elected Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine. Geo-politically, his focus will be on containing China, and not on MENA. He may even: normalise US foreign relations with Russia; close US bases in MENA; and open-up a dialogue with BRICS (including Iran) about economic relations and trade. To his credit, unlike Biden/Harris, he is not a warmonger.
So undecided voters in Michigan, many of whom emigrated to the US from MENA, provided they do not abstain, may vote for Trump.
This is even more likely, if as reported, Trump has clearly stated that he does not want a war with Iran no matter what Netanyahu wants.
For those of you who have forgotten, Netanyahu betrayed Trump in the immediate aftermath of the previous election. Trump has a long memory. I wonder if he has forgiven Netanyahu?
So, keep a close eye on Michigan!