‘Centre for Geopolitics at Cambridge University Panel Event about the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).’ [04.08.2023]. My Q. was:
‘What are the geopolitical implications & potential consequences of the UK withdrawing from the CITPP in order to rejoin the EU as a full member?’
The recording has been posted on the ‘Geopolitical Challenges’ page at www.diplomaticlawguide.com. To listen to the answers provided by the panel of expert speakers fast forward to 38.15. What I picked up listening to the panel discussion and answers to my Q were:
·     CPTPP will add £1.8bn/year to the UK economy after 10 years = less than 1% of UK GDP (around 0.8%).  
· It is unlikely that the UK will rejoin the EU for at least another 10 years [i.e. because of: domestic issues; ‘they do not want us back’; & conditional on acceptance of the Euro].
·       China & Taiwan are unlikely to join the CPTPP.
·       There appears to be an Achilles heel in the CPTPP – Cyber-Security & Data Regulation. This is an obstacle to certain states being allowed to join. If rules were relaxed the UK might have to withdraw.
·       There is no obvious security dimension/benefit of the UK being a member of CPTPP.
·       Labour have no appetite to take the UK out of the CPTPP & to protect the image of ‘Global Britain’ as a totem are likely to maintain the Pacific tilt.
·       A geopolitical consequence of withdrawing is that in Asia the UK would appear to be ‘going back to its European home’ i.e. being in geopolitical retreat.
·       The world has changed. The conventional orthodoxy of the past about a rules-based global order eventually dominating & regulating international trade & competition between nation states no longer reflects reality.
·       Perhaps there is an opportunity to design a new world order for international trade but that remains to be seen.
·       Perhaps the CPTPP has a role to play in shaping that order?
·       Meanwhile Britain & a future Labour Government who will want to get as close as they can to Europe, will have to make the most of what we have got, i.e. the situation we are in post-BREXIT.
My overall & abiding impression is that in relation to political rhetoric, theory & ideology about achieving economic growth through international trade, the reality is that the UK is drifting on the high seas almost entirely at the mercy of competing ‘geopolitical’ trade winds over which we have little or no control & influence, & that steering economic growth will be a very slow & gradual process. Who knows what lies ahead? As a nation, we must decide who we are & what our values are in the post-BREXIT world of international trade. Otherwise, we have no political compass. For future Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer – the biggest challenge will be to keep the ship upright & afloat in the perfect economic storm that BREXIT has brought about. Not the direction of travel. So expect a long & turbulent journey back to Europe.