‘A Tory MP and arch critic of Boris Johnson has sparked a backlash from Brexiters after suggesting Britain re-join the EU’s single market to help ease the cost of living crisis.’ (02.06.2022 – the ‘Guardian’).
‘Rishi Sunak’s first job is to admit to Brexit ‘lies’ and strike a new deal with EU, says ex-Tory donor Guy Hands … The boss of private equity firm Terra Firma said he will not donate to the Conservative Party until it moves on from ‘internal destructive battles.’ (the ‘I’ 24.10.2022).
Assume that:
· Labour, under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer take seats from the SNP in the next general election.
· This weakens the political resolve of the Scottish people to vote for independence [‘A’].
· [‘A’] has a political knock-on effect in Northern Ireland [‘NI’].
· Labour announce a referendum to decide upon re-joining the EU Single Market [‘B’].
· The result of B is that the people of NI vote to re-join the EU, because:
– Sinn Féin (‘SF’) supporters want to obtain the economic and service benefits enjoyed by their neighbours south of the border.
– For Ulster Unionist Party [‘DUP’] supporters, the issue is a no-brainer as their party would cease to exist as a political force following Irish Unification, i.e. B is existential.
Then B will have the following consequences:
· Labour will have preserved the Union because:
– In Scotland it will have diluted the political power of the SNP.
– In NI, by supporting B, the DUP will have pinned their colours to Labour’s mast.
· People throughout the Union will ask – ‘what was the point of Brexit?’, i.e. because the UK will no longer be free to sign up to FTA’s.
Therefore, a strategic question for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is how he can design a path for restoration of the UK’s economic fortunes following Brexit and the Mini-Budget, by engaging in a discussion with the EU about the NI Protocol (which is not working and has not conferred the benefits promised)/re-negotiation of the entire Brexit deal, without his Government being toppled by the ERG (i.e. the right wing European Research Group of MP’s in Westminister).
Since those within his own party have questioned the political mandate of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, see:
‘All hell will break loose: General election impossible to avoid when Rishi Sunak made PM, says Dorries’ (the ‘Independent’ 25.10.2022),
and he himself has said that his party is facing an existential threat – ‘Incoming prime minister says Tories must “unite or die” and rules out early general election’ (Guardian 24.10.2022), then at some point in the coming months he will have to make a decision about when to ‘take the bull by the horns’ and confront the ESG with economic reality, i.e. hard facts v. wishful thinking and the unorthodox/radical economic theory of a ‘cult’. In other words, Rishi Sunak is sitting on a political time-bomb and the clock for a general election is ticking! Can he square the circle?
See also:
Australia fears UK trade deal could be scuppered (msn.com)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-prime-minister-system
A wary Europe greets Sunak’s premiership with relief | Financial Times (ft.com)
Rishi Sunak should bin the EU law bill | Letters | The Guardian
The vindication of Rishi Sunak – POLITICO
UK and EU must work together, bloc’s chairman tells new PM Sunak | Reuters